For nearly a decade, the College Football Playoff National Championship has showcased future NFL quarterbacks. Names like Marcus Mariota, Deshaun Watson, and Joe Burrow emerged as first-round picks, creating an impressive lineage. The streak continued until the unexpected Stetson Bennett vs. Max Duggan matchup last year. However, a new streak is poised to begin as Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, both potential first-round picks, face off in this year’s title game.
Beyond the quest for the championship, a significant subplot revolves around Penix and McCarthy’s NFL draft positions. The central question lingers: Will McCarthy join Penix in the 2024 NFL Draft, and if so, who will be the first off the board?
Experts suggest that both quarterbacks are likely to settle at the top of the second tier, trailing behind Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and Jayden Daniels. A diverse range of opinions exists on Penix and McCarthy, considering play styles, medical histories, and other factors. The upcoming championship game serves as a crucial stage for both quarterbacks to make lasting impressions on NFL talent evaluators.
According to an AFC general manager,
“Penix and McCarthy, I can see having different opinions with play style preferences and the medical and some other factors. There’s some stuff, some things not to like about both players. … Penix is rolling right now, definitely, and McCarthy could get some momentum [in the championship game]. What they do here, positive or negative, it’s the kind of moment that leaves an impression.”
Yahoo Sports consulted a diverse group of evaluators, ranging from general managers to area scouts, to gauge how Penix and McCarthy compare in assessments and how the championship game could influence their draft stock. The consensus is that the game will showcase a contrast between the two quarterbacks, offering evaluators an opportunity to weigh differing tools, leadership styles, and experiences.
Despite both quarterbacks potentially vying for the fourth quarterback slot in the 2024 NFL Draft, Penix and McCarthy differ significantly in terms of physical attributes, age, medical history, and eligibility. Penix, known for his deep ball accuracy, stands out for his command of the offense and poise, highlighted in the Sugar Bowl semifinal win over Texas.
An AFC scout noted,
“His throwing motion and mechanics are a little different, too. He definitely doesn’t have a classic over-the-top motion. But it’s not terrible, either.”
While Penix’s deep accuracy is unparalleled, there are concerns about consistency in shorter routes. Evaluators unanimously emphasize the significance of refining Penix’s timing and mechanics on shorter passes.
However, the cloud of Penix’s injury history looms large in the evaluation process, with torn ACLs in both knees and other joint injuries raising red flags. Evaluators acknowledge the risk but express confidence that Penix’s long-ball precision, rare and difficult to coach, justifies consideration.
Conversely, McCarthy, at 21 years old, has the advantage of youth and fewer throws on tape compared to Penix. Experts appreciate McCarthy’s athleticism, arm velocity, and improvement in accuracy and consistency. There is a consensus that McCarthy could benefit from another year in college to refine his skills further.
An NFC scout remarked,
“He should go back — and I don’t mean that as a knock on him. I just think he could benefit from another year of being in that offense, where they could open it up a little more for him.” Despite McCarthy’s potential, evaluators question whether he can elevate his team in the same way Penix can.
The Monday night matchup unfolds with Penix riding a wave of momentum, while McCarthy seeks to solidify his standing with a less-established track record. The game is a pivotal moment that could define their trajectories in the upcoming NFL draft and beyond. Penix appears to be a surefire first-round pick, while McCarthy’s future may hinge on a decision to return to Michigan for another year of seasoning. Regardless of the outcome, Monday night’s clash promises to leave a lasting impression on the NFL landscape.
